Victoria's Five-Year Price Lag Has Become Its Greatest Advantage - and Interstate Buyers Are Paying Attention

The Victorian greenfield market is in the middle of a structural shift and there’s a clear trend we’ve been seeing across our portfolio.

Interstate buyer demand has tripled in three years, with 35–40% of Core Projects’ 2026 signed contracts coming from buyers outside Victoria. That’s up from just 11% in 2023, across our 41 active projects spanning Melbourne’s south-east, west, north, Geelong and regional Victoria.

And it’s not just an investor story. One in five of those interstate buyers is purchasing to live in the home.

Why now? Sell high, buy low.
Speaking to The Urban Developer,  Project Marketing Director Ben Stewart described the shift as structural rather than speculative:

“We’re seeing a clear shift, with interstate buyers recognising Melbourne not as a secondary option, but as the smartest move in the current cycle.”

The pricing case is hard to ignore. Reviewing house and land packages from Australia’s top five HIA-ranked builders, Melbourne’s median sits around $750,000, approximately $300,000 below Queensland, $150,000 below NSW, and $110,000 below Western Australia.

Add in the five-year picture, Melbourne’s median price growth of 18–19% versus more than 100% in QLD and WA over the same period, and the equity story writes itself.

“People are coming back to Melbourne because what they were paying in rent interstate would service a mortgage in Victoria,” Ben said.

Where the demand is coming from
New South Wales : 18% of Core’s total buyer pool
Queensland : just under 10%
Western Australia : 5%, and growing fast (most of that growth has come in the last 8–12 weeks)

Regional Victoria is leading the way
The story isn’t only metropolitan. Across our Colac projects, sales volumes are up 234% year-on-year, with 2026 monthly run rates pointing to a further 20% increase. Some Geelong suburbs are now recording vacancy rates below 1%, underpinning a strong rental case for regional greenfield stock. Geelong’s first-quarter 2026 result of close to 500 sales was the region’s strongest since early 2022.

Local buyers are still very much in the market
The interstate trend hasn’t displaced local participation. Novella at Mickleham has recorded three sell-out releases since launching in late March 2026, most to local owner-occupiers. At Mandalay in Beveridge, close to 50% of 2026 enquiry has come from first home buyers.

Lot configurations are influencing results, with 21m, 25m and 28m depths performing strongly, and sub-300sqm product in short supply relative to demand.

The bigger market picture
Victoria continues to lead sales volumes nationally.

March 2026 — 1,119 Victorian greenfield sales, the highest monthly total of the year
April 2026 — 912 sales, plus 377 outstanding contracts
Rolling 12-month average — 1,044 sales per month, the highest greenfield volume of any state in the country
Victoria led all states in greenfield land sales volumes in 2025.

“The Victorian market is weathering the storm,” Ben said. “If you’ve got efficient product, a strong sales team and the right price point, you’re going to do well.”

📖 Read the full article in The Urban Developer: How Victoria’s Five-Year Property Price Lag is Now an Advantage

🔗 Explore the data behind the story at gripinsights.com.au