GRIP Insights - September 2025

Over the past 12 months, the Melbourne and Geelong greenfield market has shown steady improvement, with total gross sales reaching 1,109 lots in September, with 428 titled and 681 untitled sales. This reflects ongoing demand across both ready-to-build and off-the-plan stock.

Sales momentum has strengthened notably from early 2025, with titled activity climbing above longer-term averages and untitled sales holding strong through mid-year. The rebound from late 2024 aligns with renewed buyer confidence, interest rate reductions and the release of fresh stages into the market.

Supply levels remain healthy, with 5,882 lots available (2,142 titled, 3,740 untitled), providing ample opportunity for continued absorption through the remainder of the year. The average monthly sales rate of 5.9 lots per project is consistent with stabilised market conditions following two years of fluctuation.

With 965 net sales and 807 newly released lots, activity points to a more balanced market, one where fresh supply is being met with improved buyer confidence.

North
The North region demonstrated resilient market conditions with 329 gross sales recorded in September 2025. Despite a modest 1% decline in gross sales compared to August, the region experienced a 3% increase in median pricing to $399,000 (up from $388,500). The median lot size of 369 sqm positions the North competitively for a range of buyers. With an average of 7.3 sales per trading estate, the region shows healthy absorption across multiple developments. Merrifield (33 sales), Highlands (31 sales), and Cloverton (29 sales) led market activity, collectively accounting for strong buyer interest across the region.

South East
The South East delivered the strongest performance across all regions, achieving 285 gross sales in September compared to 264 in August 2025 – representing an impressive 8% increase. The region also recorded a 6% uplift in median pricing to $465,000 (up from $440,000), the highest across all regions. At 392 sqm, the South East offers marginally larger lots than the North, supporting its premium positioning. With 8.8 average sales per estate, the region demonstrates strong market depth. Smiths Lane (23 sales) emerged as a key performer, while the region’s pricing trajectory reflects sustained buyer confidence and limited supply dynamics.

West
The West region recorded 334 gross sales in September compared to 381 in August 2025, representing a -7% decrease in activity. Pricing also lifted by 2% with a median of $389,000 (down from $380,500). The West offers the smallest median lot size at 361 sqm, appealing to affordability-focused buyers and investors. Woodlea (25 sales) maintained its position as the region’s leading estate, demonstrating the ongoing appeal of established masterplanned communities. With 3.8 average sales per estate, the West shows concentration in key developments rather than dispersed activity.

Greater Geelong
Greater Geelong experienced the most significant month-on-month uplift, with 161 gross sales in September compared to 125 in August – a 29% increase. This surge in activity lifted the median sold price by 1% to $383,000 (up from $377,500), with underlying demand starting to more confidently absorb increased supply. With the largest median lot size at 400 sqm and 5.5 average sales per estate, Greater Geelong continues to attract buyers seeking value and space. The region’s performance continues improving momentum as Spring unfolds.

September reports are now live for subscribers at gripinsights.com.au.

Reach out to Grant Neilson, Director of Research for any custom reporting enquiries.