GRIP Insights : June 2026

The headlines

June sales softened to 785 lots, sitting well below both the 3-month average (864) and 12-month average (1,014). This represents a continued easing in demand as we move into winter.

A key distortion this month is the 41 outstanding deposits held at a single project. Once accounted for, the market carries forward a net balance of ~280 lots yet to be contracted into July, significantly below the typical monthly carry-in and well short of the 12-month average. In practical terms, this removes the usual ‘head start’ we see at the beginning of a new month. At the same time, total available stock has pushed the market back into oversupply, now sitting at 7.3 months of stock.

A look at each of the regions

North
Sales eased to 234 lots (down from 258 in May, ~-9%), with median lot size steady at 350sqm. Median price softened to $370,500 (down from $380,500).

South East
The South East was the only corridor to see a positive trend, lifting to 202 sales (up from 193). Median pricing edged up to $456,000, showing continued resilience despite broader market softening.

West
Activity dropped sharply to 203 sales (down from 299, -32%), the largest decline across all regions. An increase to median price at $407,000 (up from $380,000), was the result of an increase in lot size sold.

Greater Geelong
Sales held relatively stable at 146 lots (down slightly from 149), while median price increased to $408,500 (up from $397,000).

Market read

The combination of subdued sales (785 lots) and a materially reduced carry-in position (~280 lots) puts the market in a more fragile position heading into the new month. Without the usual pipeline momentum, most projects are entering July without a meaningful buffer.

Total stock levels have risen to 5,713 lots, including 1,546 titled, pushing the market back into oversupply at 7.3 months of stock. With 7.3 months of supply, the market has moved beyond equilibrium, increasing pressure on pricing and limiting ability to drive urgency in the short term.

Bottom line

• Sales have slowed
• The typical start-of-month buffer is significantly reduced
• Supply is building

Together, these factors point to a more subdued and price-sensitive market as we move through winter.

June GRIP reports are now live for subscribers at gripinsights.com.au.

For any custom reporting queries, reach out to Research Director Grant Neilson.